1 a New Approach to Modeling Large - Scale Alternative Fuel and Vehicle Transitions

A large-scale transition to alternative fuels and vehicles will be challenging. New modeling approaches are necessary to supplement existing models, such as MARKAL. One promising approach is simulation gaming. Simulation gaming has been used extensively in many fields, most conspicuously in military applications, to provide insights into the dynamics of uncertain processes. A large-scale alternative fuel and vehicle transition themed game was developed to explore the potential of this approach. Preliminary results of game play suggest a possible counter-intuitive dynamic: high energy prices can discourage wide scale adoption of alternative fueled vehicles due to the fact that increased fuel costs reduce consumers’ ability to pay for more costly alternative vehicle technologies.